Saturday, October 14, 2017

Nukes! And a couple of fake Renoirs

A recent episode of Rachel Maddow's show included an interesting segment on Trump's statements about nuclear war. Long story short: In a couple of speeches, the president has indicated that America now possesses a nearly-foolproof missile defense system.

True, the precise meaning of his statement was a bit hard to discern, because -- as always -- he spoke with marbles in his mouth. But one got the gist. He really seems persuaded that nuclear war would be survivable for the United States.

Maddow spoke to an expert who offered a very contrary opinion. Our "shield," said this expert, is extremely porous.

Is it?

Here's the thing: If we did have the technology to protect us from incoming missiles, that tech would be the most highly-guarded of America's secrets. As long as that secret remains a secret, as long as other nations could not replicate the trick, we would have a first strike capability.

No-one "in the know" would be willing to reveal such a truth in public. There's only one exception to that rule: Donald Trump himself. As everyone knows, President Blabby has a phobic reaction to the unexpressed thought: Any idea that pops into his cranium must come shooting out of his mouth.

Let us speculate further. As I always say: Speculation is fine as long as it comes clearly marked as such.

Are you among those who couldn't shake the feeling that there was something awfully odd about the rapidity of the Soviet Union's decline? That's certainly how I felt at the time: There's a hidden story here. They're keeping something important from us.

In all the years since, the conventional explanations for the Great Red Fall never made complete sense to me. I've never discussed my unease in public before, because all I had were half-formed thoughts which never congealed into a theory. Although I didn't feel comfortable with the mainstream view of what happened, I couldn't come up with a reasonable alternative.

Instinct told me that the grand finale of the USSR had some relationship to Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative, a.k.a. "Star Wars." SDI was directed against space-based weapons systems. Given the enormous amount of money that went into the program, it is fair to presume that the blackest part of that budget could have been spent on...well, anything.

Did the Soviet Union break apart with such brutal rapidity because we had come up with a national missile defense system -- one that actually worked well enough to give us a first strike capability? Is it possible that such a thing could have been kept secret -- by both sides -- for all of these years?

Here's an odd alternative idea: What if an intricate deception operation convinced the USSR that we possessed such a system, even though we did not?

For now, let us posit that a workable missile defense system was, or is, real, and that this ultimate secret was kept hidden from the public until the Orange Oaf started flapping his lips. That scenario goes a long ways toward explaining why Trump seems to desire a nuclear exchange with North Korea.

Also: It's fair to presume that this ultra-secret tech has been transported to Putin's Russia. Learning that secret would be one of the main purposes of putting Donald Trump in office.

One thing's for certain: Even if America survives a nuclear war with North Korea with all of our cities intact, our standing in the world would decrease substantially. We'd be hated by all.

And now, let us shift from weighty speculation to silly pretension.

Renoir. This Vanity Fair piece reveals that Donald Trump used to keep a copy of Renoir's Two Sisters in a private jet. (For all I know, the work is still there.) Astoundingly, Trump insisted to biographer Tim O'Brien that the painting in his possession was the genuine original by Renoir, even though the actual work hangs in the Art Institute of Chicago.

Trump's belief that he owns the original may, in fact, be sincere.
Curious, O’Brien asked Trump about the painting: was it an original Renoir? Trump replied in the affirmative. It was, he said. “No, it’s not Donald,” O’Brien responded. But, once again, Trump protested that it was.

“Donald, it’s not,” O’Brien said adamantly. “I grew up in Chicago, that Renoir is called Two Sisters on the Terrace, and it’s hanging on a wall at the Art Institute of Chicago.” He concluded emphatically: “That’s not an original.”

Trump, of course, did not agree, but O’Brien dropped the conversation topic and moved on with his interview. He thought that he had heard the last of the Renoir conversation. But the next day, when they boarded the plane to head back to New York City, Trump again pointed to the painting, and as if the conversation had never happened, he pointed to the fake and proclaimed, “You know, that’s an original Renoir.” O’Brien, chose not to engage, and dropped the conversation.
In a previous post, we discussed another ersatz Renoir hanging in Trump's pad in Trump Tower, as revealed by the photo to your right. It's called both At the Opera and La Loge. The actual painting is still hanging in the Courtauld Gallery in London.

In my post, I said that a man of Trump's wealth should invest in original art. Buying or commissioning a copy of a Renoir (or of anything else) is beneath a man of Trump's station -- both his actual station and his pretended station. There are many living artists of high quality whose works can be purchased for reasonable prices; for example, one can pick up a fine example of Odd Nerdrum's work for around $50,000. Trump should be able to afford that, even if he is worth far less than he claims.

Of course, investing in art requires the acquisition of taste. In Trumpworld, that commodity is elusive.

The Vanity Fair piece increases the probability that Donald Trump tells visitors that he owns the real version of At the Opera. Anyone who knows about art would immediately be onto him: That painting is one of Renoir's most famous works.

Apparently, Trump surrounds himself with people who refuse to burst his illusions -- or who know nothing about culture.

11 comments:

b said...

It was common knowledge in the late 1980s in the bits of "proper" academia that were concerned with the USSR and with US-Soviet relations that the US attitude towards the anti-ballistic missile thread of the "game" was as follows:

"we'll each guard one site with ABM - yours is Moscow, and ours is the whole of the contiguous 49 states, right?"

(Dear readers, you will probably be wasting your time if you ask Wikipedia or Google for verification.)

There was no way the USSR was going to survive the info revolution. A few years after its demise, the main successor state couldn't even protect its nuclear facilities against the Chechens.

(But it says a lot that they had the good sense to do a deal, a deal in the true sense of the word and not the Trumpian sense of pushing the other party's face into a cowpat while telling yourself you're the greatest.)

The KGB is a completely different kettle of fish from the USSR-CPSU. The ~KGB is winning in the "fifth domain" of warfare. Morale is much higher in Russia than the US too.

In military PR - an interesting and up-and-coming field - Russia is also superior. Consider the countries' respective actions in Syria. I've also seen some competent play by Sweden. The US? Tell me about it. The mutilated bodies of Saddam Hussein's sons? The "truth doctor" shining a torch into their father's mouth? That's single-studio stuff. It's not like the 200 white Russian trucks going into the Ukraine. And in the terrifying display of brutality the US is far behind Daesh as we all know.

Mr Mike said...

I remember the controversy surrounding SDI aka Star Wars. Articles were written about the cost/benefit ratio for the money Regan was pumping into the Department of Defense.
I was under the impression the USSR went broke trying to keep up while at the same time corruption was eating away the pillars of government.
An unintended consequence of the money spent was the revival of the U.S. economy. Reagan could have put the money into infrastructure rebuilding with the same results. Something President Carter should have done instead of going the "Lower your thermostat" route.

Prowlerzee said...

He could be taunted in his own terms as displaying Fake Art! As for the missile shield, it was big news in the Boston area that a tenured professor at MIT tried to spill the beans on how the missile shield was a joke and fraudulent expense. Maybe Cambridge Knitter has a better memory on this than I have.

Stephen Morgan said...

I don't think it's possible America has a working missile shield against Russia, but against North Korea is a different matter. Korea has only a few warheads, doesn't have real ICBMs, doesn't have MIRVS or jammers or decoys on their missiles, doesn't have bomber submarines to launch them from, and so forth. Easy to take them out, comparatively speaking.

As for Renoirs, how do you know which ones are the real ones? Perhaps captain Blabby is spilling the beans again. There have certainly been rumours over the years of things in the possession of the state going missing, possibly to fund intelligence operations. The gold in Fort Knox being replaced with Tungsten. The Smithsonian dumping OOPArts in the sea. Tamashita's gold. Various Nazi loot, such as the Gold Train. And one occasionally hears tell of rival claimants to the title of real works of art. During the war they buried all the art and replaced it with duplicates. No-one noticed then. Claims are regularly made, mainly by Sheikhs and other nouveau riche types to owning things supposedly elsewhere. So perhaps Trump really does own the real thing, or perhaps some fraudster convinced him that he owns the real thing.

maz said...

When I was forced to sell my house a while back,* I ended up with a small windfall. At the time I very nearly purchased an original by -- well, I won't mention who, because you'll surely hate the artist -- which at the time would have cost around $60,000. (I'd looked into buying a canvas by, well, another artist you'd hate, but at the time he was presold for 3 years at $120,000 a pop.)

Ultimately, I decided against making such a huge purchase -- but, looking back, I wish I had, because all I did instead was let the money dribble away while I wrestled myself to a standstill.
__________
* In the opening years of this century, I lost my girlfriend/best friend/business partner of 5 years; over the following 12 months, as collateral damage from the break-up, I went on to lose my job, business, career, home, car, life savings, position in the community, and about 1/3 of my social group. Oh, my self-confidence, as well. And, about a month before, in an unrelated loss, my father, who was also one of my closest friends.

Joseph Cannon said...

"As for Renoirs, how do you know which ones are the real ones?"

Um...turn 'em over?

Okay, you and I can't do that, but the owners of the legit works can do so. There's usually some clue to authentication on the backside. Haven't you ever watched "Fake or Fortune?" (Fiona Bruce has joined my list of crush-worthy women.)

An analysis of the paint would tell us which painting is the real deal, since Renoir used a couple of fugitive colors (Carmine/Cochineal Red and Chrome Yellow) which no artist of the past half-century would use -- in fact, they aren't even sold anymore, although Kremer will sell you the bugs necessary to mull your own Cochineal Red.

(Don't get me started on this stuff. On the Wetcanvas site, I've been known to fob myself off as some sort of expert regarding the technical side of oil painting.)

Actually, I own a very old tube of Cochineal. It's one of my prized possessions. And a few decades ago, I had some Chrome Yellow.

Omigod -- maybe I'M the Renoir forger!

Maz: "well, I won't mention who, because you'll surely hate the artist."

I try not to complain about artists because I know how hard it is to make a living in that game. On the other hand, I HAVE bitched about a couple of contemporary artists in previous posts. Maybe I shouldn't have done that.

Joseph Cannon said...

By the way, maz, I know what it's like to lose...everything. I've been through it a couple of times. You were lucky to lose only 1/3 of your friends. But losing your dad is a blow that you never forget.

Prowlerzee said...

Come sit by me, Maz, and we'll compare the art of losing! I can't post the link to my favorite Elizabeth Bishop poem, One Art, because my computer was recently stolen and it took me forever to even learn how to post from my phone. I am meeting an awesome artist tonight, Peter Max. I don't apologize for liking pop! I can't afford any of the work, but maybe he will sign my Peter Max poster book from back in the day.

Prowlerzee said...

Totally signed my 1971 poster book I got as a child! My cuz and I were like well behaved excited children watching all the swells get 10s of thousands worth of framed originals signed and it was over an hour before there was enough of a lull (and no gallery guards) for him to hold his hand out for my book. I know exactly the piece I'd buy if I had 6 k to spare! And yes, preznut puny paws fake art did come up in crowd conversation.

Alessandro Machi said...

I think they are called MIRV's, one nuclear missile goes up, and then five or 10 nuclear weapons are jettisoned from the main missile, creating 10 targets instead of one.
Now what if MIRV could handle 20 or 30 missiles, but only 10 were real, now one missile could cause those trying to stop the missile to have to destroy thirty targets.
No way to hit everything in the sky.
What if a plane were to launch 300 drones carrying GPS signals, What then? Do we ignore it, or try and hit each one?
Unless the U.S. has already been knocking nukes out of the sky for years but not telling anyone, i don't think its possible to ensure that anything coming towards the U.S. can be disabled in time.

Tom said...

Joseph, the entity you brought to our attention, which bore the description "is art company" is on my mind, now. Wonder what they (he?) sold to whom? This is the sort of comic relief I'm grateful for.

Prowlerzee, very cool getting that book signed. I'm all admiration for your having kept a childhood favorite for all this time.